EcoFuture - A socio-ecological approach to combat desertification for a sustainable future

The Mediterranean region is considered a “Hot Spot” susceptible to the threat of climate change. Many regions are prone to desertification, reduced water, loss of fertile soil, and degradation of the ecological services provided. In addition, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and Israel are in midst of political conflict. The Jordan Valley (JV) exhibits all those threats. It is the unique combination of climate-change and political threats that led us to choose the JV to be the test case in this project. The participants in this project share the opinion that a valid WEFE Nexus resources management plan must be developed on a regional level according to the geographical continuum and not just on a national level. The Jordan Valley’s WEFE situation represents an existential crisis, and while the countries in the region have made efforts to immunise themselves from the dangers of climate change, an equitable and affordable regional response is needed to secure sufficient resources, and enable access to these resources. The JV faces a complex set of development challenges stemming from chronic water scarcity. In water scarce environments, the most vulnerable and poorest communities suffer the most due to economic and social impacts. Internally displaced persons and those living in formal and informal settlements generally lack adequate and reliable access to water and sanitation facilities and services. The situation is aggravated by climatic conditions, geography, and the region's geopolitical environment. Limitations on water place strains on agricultural systems, underminingthe capacity to provide food security, and support livelihoods in the region. The Jordan Water Substitution and Reuse Policy (2016) endeavors to substitute treated wastewater for freshwater, increasing agricultural water allocation solely by this substitution. In 2020, the amount of treated wastewater was about 186.58 MCM. Israel’s strategy of treating 90% of wastewater and reusing 85% for agriculture has drastically reduced reliance of the agricultural sector on freshwater. Palestinian agricultural yield, and therefore food security, could be vastly improved if wastewater in Gaza and the West Bank were similarly treated and reused. It is estimated by the World Bank Group (2016) that by 2030 Palestinian (West Bank and Gaza) wastewater production will reach 267 MCM/year offering a rich resource for development if the proper infrastructure for treatment and reuse is installed. While the region does not currently face chronic food shortages, it has many vulnerable off the grid communities that have trouble accessing food, a problem that has been exacerbated by the pandemic and the recent Russia-Ukrain conflict. The region is among the world’s largest food importers, with most depending on imports for over half their dietary needs. Price increases, border closures, supply chain failures and in the case of Jordan and Palestine, depreciation of local currencies have resulted in an overall average increase in the cost of the food basket for many. Disruptions in the food supply, and the loss of livelihoods means that households are facing increased difficulties in accessing nutritious foods. This will impact low income and more vulnerable households in their ability to access and afford healthy diets, and contribute to the instability of the region, as seen during the Arab Spring. Extreme weather conditions may cause huge variations in agricultural yield. The high variation severely limits food security planning based on local production. Climate controlled agriculture and use of improved climate-resistant vegetative breeds can reduce this variability, enhance food security and local resilience. Development of the agroprocessing sector plays an important role in rural transformation, adding value and reducing food loss. Climate controlled agriculture provides more control over production yield, quality, and water consumption, enabling sunradiation to illuminate the entire plant. Controlled environments can more easily employ smart-agriculture and intensive use of automation also resulting in reduced impact of infections and lowered demand for intensive labour. This is an ongoing concern for many developed nations, whose populations are less inclined to work within the agricultural sectors. There are also links between water-energy-food and ecosystems. On the one hand, the availability of water and energy can contribute to the preservation/over-utilisation of natural resources in the region, and enable artificial aquifer recharge, but on the other hand may deplete the flow of ecosystem services (ES) both regulating and cultural. The Jordan River Valley is the cradle of human civilisation with many highly valued protected historical sites. Unique characteristics of the Jordan River as an ecosystem include the seasonal migration route of billons of birds flying to and from Asia to Africa every year and the intensity of soil degradation due to climate change. The overall environmental status is fragile. Threats can arise if reused-treated wastewater quality is not sufficient and may contaminate the soil and river if the effluents and sludge from the wastewater treatment plants are not taken care of properly.

The principle behind this WEFE concept is to provide Security of Supply (SoS) for the major resources (water, energy, food and ecosystems) in the most effective way. However, SoS is a subjective matter and differs from country to country, and from region to region. In the JV region three countries are involved, each with significant differences in their conditions and approach to SoS. One way to overcome this obstacle is to define a set of agreed questions related to the SoS definition, questions that have quantitative, well-defined answers. The answers can provide the constraints and/or the boundary conditions to the models that will be used. The questions have to follow the full chain-of-supply of any required product and address linkages between the WEFE sectors. The building of the set of agreed questions and the collection of the answers in the three countries requires intimate discussions and agreement between all the stakeholders in all countries. We will engage the stakeholders by creating Living Labs in each country and we will identify the local perception on the WEFE Nexus using mind maps and Causal Loop Diagrams. The results will then be integrated into acceptable alternatives for Nature Based Solutions that will optimize the WEFE Nexus and improve the well-being of the citizens in the JV. The project will work in a 3D matrix system. The 1st axis will be the national axis. The 2nd will be the sectorial one – (water, energy, agriculture, environment). The 3rd one relates to ‘tasks’. Each participant will be positioned on 1,2 and/or all the 3 axes which are spread among 5 work packages (4 Sectoral and 1 for socio-economic impact and integration). Each sectoral work package will have aligned tasks that enable their synergy with each other. The stakeholders headed by the consortium partners and their supporting staff from each country (Living Labs), will study the policies, regulations, and future aspirations of the policy-makers in their country, understanding the philosophy that guides the policy-makers in their decisions in the sectors. Conflicts observed due to contradictory sector policies should be analysed, so as to pay special attention towards attaining coherence. Causal Loop Diagrams will be developed bottom-up to clearly identify the cause and effect relationships in the different aspects of the NEXUS. The information will be discussed with all partners and will enable the establishment of an agreed set of questions that follows the full chain of supply of each product, and, address the interconnectivity between the WEFE sectors. Expected answers will be quantitative and well defined. The database of the answers will be used in the models. Following that the national teams, in all sectors, will supply the responses to the questions. Therefore, we will have points-of-contact in all relevant governmental institutions in every country. The national participants will share their information with their partners from the other countries in sectorial meetings where the team will define possible ways of actions, technical and socioeconomic, that serve all countries as reflected in the quantitative database. We will identify Nature based Solutions that optimise the WEFE Nexus, and possible ways of action will be evaluated in the modelling, using information from the database as input, boundary conditions or constraints, to assess the impact for every nation. The task integration team will model the socio-economical and socio-ecological effects of the composed WEFE nexus scenarios from the sectorial ones, and eventually provide new suggestions to the sectorial plans.

The plan that is to be suggested as the final delivery of this program can provide an effective strategy for climate change adaptation, with high socio-economical and socio-ecological impact on the people living in the JV area, as well as on the ecosystem and the environment of this important region. The Plan will attempt to promote further cross-boundary relations that will hopefully contribute to the relaxation of the political conflicts between the three nations. Using the Jordan Valley (JV) as a test case, the overall project objective is to develop a climate-change adaptation program oriented towards improving socio-economic welfare for people in the Mediterranean region. Based on Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) nexus methodologies, the project will build the research and innovation capacities of partners and stakeholders. The project will establish a long-term cross-border cooperation between demonstrations sites in Palestine, Israel and Jordan, and engage in a strategic dialogue with decision makers of the region on how to implement integrated WEFE management on a regional scale, and will establish a baseline and shared database of resources for riparian countries of the Jordan River Valley Region including water, energy, agricultural production and ecosystem services. It will study and model the long-term socio-economic implications of integrated WEFE management on a national and regional scale with a special emphasis on cross-border optimization of resources. The following indicators are proposed for SO1: Number of government agencies from Israel Palestine and Jordan engaged in a dialogue and cooperating with the ECOFUTURE scientific team (~5 regulatory bodies) • Number of integrated master plans that will be specialized for the region (3 Jordan/Israel/Palestine) • Number of scientific papers regarding WEFE Nexus cross-boundary methodology published within the project and the 2 following years, their impact factor and citations. (At least 4 papers are expected) • Number of expected beneficiaries from implementation of the regional integrated WEFE approach proposed by the ECOFUTURE initiative at the end of the three-year study. (population in JV) For the monitoring of SO1.1 - Use techno-economic models to optimize the sustainable efficiency (economic, society and environment) performance of the Plan; and SO1.2 - Use socio-economic models to assess and recommend policies in the WEFE context to improve the welfare of people in the region, the following indicators are proposed: • Number of modelling scenarios developed / number of modelling tools applied (~2 or more) • Number of scientists and practitioners (stakeholders) engaged in the ECOFUTURE initiative (~100) • Number of analyses mapping the resources needed to maintain quality & quantity of ecosystem services (3 regions) For the monitoring of SO2 - Perform tests in three demonstration sites in the Jordan Valley, one in each country, in order to validate the inputs to the various models. The following indicators are defined: • Number of demonstration sites and the number of beneficiaries of the demonstration sites (3) • Number of technologies investigated or applied/tested within the demonstration sites (TBD in year 2) • Quantities of water, energy, food and ecosystem services produced by the regional integrated management models developed as a result of the three-year ECOFUTURE research as compared to the projected baseline for a nonintegrated and non-regional approach • Impact on policy objectives from demonstrations sites (qualitative anecdotal impact) SO3 seeks to propose methodologies to extend the applicability of the results of the Jordan Valley to other regions and to other Mediterranean countries. It is presumed that by demonstrating integrated WEFE approaches to managing scarce and shared resources in the Jordan River Valley through demonstration sites and knowledge sharing, this can be duplicated and scaled up through work package 5; Strategic Planning for Sustainable Development. The proposed indicators for this final objective SO3 are: • Number of Israeli, Palestinian, Jordanian and Mediterranean scientists collaborating on WEFE initiatives in order to demonstrate optimisation of resource infrastructure in the water stressed Jordan River Valley with implications for all Mediterranean countries threatened by the climate crisis. • Numbers of new opportunities to engage in wider collaboration including other countries in the Mediterranean, North Africa and Gulf region. (~4-6) • Number of practitioners within the Mediterranean community of practice (CoP) engaged and capitalising with the synergies of the proposed project (~5-20) • Number of new channels of dialogue established to support broader EU ambitions for regional and trans-basin stability, in accordance with identifying solutions to support the Arab Israeli Peace process.(TBD) • Number of synergies established with other WEFE demonstration sites over the duration of the project. (TBD in conjunction with contracting authority) SO4 - Building Synergies across Sectors: (indicator = number of synergies) By building synergies across the sectors it will enable the project to investigates interlinkages across the nexus and identify potential synergies and trade-offs for combined coordinated actions; thinking about water in nexus terms, could help water utilities and other water organisations to better understand interlinkages, problems and needs, and therefore better prepare to negotiate solutions with other sectors’ stakeholders; and improve the understanding of how nexus thinking can help the water sector engage with stakeholders across the nexus sectors to build synergies and manage trade-offs related to water use across sectors and countries. This exercise can be completed at the governance level by policy coherence analysis that can be undertaken both vertically and horizontally. The former refers to coherence between different levels of government. The latter refers to coherence between policy areas across a certain level. Policy coherence requires consistency between goals, instruments and implementation procedures in order to promote synergies, and also to mitigate conflicts, between and within different sectors, in order to achieve intended objectives. SO5 – Implement capacity building and training program based on the findings of the assessment reports. (Indicators include – number of participants (m/f) / reported changes in skills and behaviors Outputs of the project will include: A preliminary evaluation of various configurations (centralised and/or decentralised) waste-water treatment with the minimum capacity to cover the needs required by the other sectors (including some contribution to the ecosystem); an evaluation of all renewable energy sources available to the region and the energy demand, and the possible suppliers; a study into the options of a large-scale hydroelectric plan based on a possible head of about 700m and quantities of waste-water that can be collected in some regions on the Jordanian heights. A program for food production in the region; a plan for 3 demonstration pilot plants of sophisticated greenhouse for experimental verification of food productivity and water and energy consumption (the greenhouse will exhibit smart agriculture inc. Agri-PV option, climate controlled environment, etc); an evaluation of the impact of the full-scale implementation plan based on the socioeconomic and socioecological studies, including requirements for energy, water and possible supply; methods, food production and the benefits and losses to the ecosystem. The sites will include self-contained climate controlled agricultural infrastructure, of a few dunams each where potential crops most appropriate for local soil, water and climate conditions, according to each county’s priorities will be tested. (Existing pilot-plans in the area will be used as a basis for the needed demonstration); finally, the development and delivery of training programs for communities and long-term beneficiaries. (A good portion of the training materials developed and prepared including: efficient food practices and the use of small-scale RE for rural development - Marketing techniques for rural women's products - Water-saving irrigation techniques and RE technologies for irrigation and water desalination. - good practices on packaging, customised trademarks adoption, and labeling of local products).