Addressing the challenges of climate change for sustainable food security in Turkey, Iran and Morocco, through the creation and dissemination of an international database to promote the use of wheat genetic resources and increase genetic gains

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that the warmest daily maximum temperature is projected to increase 4 to 7° C in the WANA region including Turkey, Iran and Morocco, the target region in this proposal (more than 5Mha). Additionally, mean annual soil moisture is projected to decrease in these countries whereas profitability of irrigated agriculture is expected to decline owing to increased pumping of groundwater and increased salinity risk of aquifers (IPCC, 2014). Climate change will affect global food security as shown by Schmidhuber and Tubielo (2007). The introduction of new wheat varieties adapted to low rainfall and terminal heat with increased water use efficiency is vital to mitigate the impact of these potential changes on food security while ensuring sustainability. Wheat breeders must overcome the significant hurdle of selecting for improved performance under drought and heat conditions. Challenges hindering the release of better-adapted varieties in the target region include: 1) Breeding lines and landrace collections stored in gene banks are poorly characterized at the phenotypic and genotypic levels and underexploited for adaptation to climate change. Information on potential parental lines for breeding is largely unknown. Technologies that can accelerate breeding are not implemented in the targeted region. They include: a) development of DNA markers for yellow rust resistance, drought and heat adaptation; b) unused genome-wide association studies (GWAS); c) lack of knowledge on the most efficient strategy for including landraces in breeding; 2) Transfer and implementation of technologies in previous point one scarce, scattered or nonexistent; 3) Limited information sharing within the target region, particularly with regard to gene banks and traits associated with stored seeds. Phenotypic and genotypic data of PGRFA is scattered and unavailable to breeders in a unified database; 4) Reduced capacity building for more efficient use of plant genetic resources; 5) The socio-economic impact of the adoption of new wheat varieties adapted to drought and heat in the region remains unmeasured through modeling; 6) Lack of awareness about the relevance of diversity and the International Treaty through the conservation and use of wheat genetic resources. If these problems are resolved in the target region, breeding programs will have ready access to information relevant for parental selection, genetic diversity will increase and genetic gains will increase. Finally, an understanding of the socio-economic impact of the implementation of locally adapted varieties resilient to climate change will help policymakers to make better judgments on which wheat varieties to distribute to farmers and to improve their incomes.

Inside the project, ICARDA contributes to the overall strategy, focusing its efforts on specific aspects: - Data collection in Morocco; - Technology package co-development and transfer o NARS.

Food security and poverty alleviation: increased availability of food through increased grain yields (at least 10%) if better adapted varieties are adopted in the region; the availability of high yielding/resistant crop varieties (at least 10 or 20) with drought and heat adaptation available for adoption; locally adapted seed is distributed to farmers according to the region; better adapted wheat varieties will be made available for the region with increased diversification; expected 10% increase in farmer’s incomes. Adaptation to climate change and environmental sustainability: the availability of resilience and adaptation strategies through better management of PGRFA. The use of more water use efficient wheat varieties will promote sustainability of resources particularly water. Through this project, we will identify possible hot spots where wheat production is expected to decrease in a more evident way and strategies and options of PGRFA may need to change in the future for those hot spots. We will also determine the socio economic impact of using drought and heat adapted varieties in comparison to baseline wheat varieties in the region. Scientific impact: the objective of this project in terms of scientific impact is to include national and regional programs on the development of new technologies and their application plus the capacity to develop scientifically sound analysis of the results. The project aims to transfer the already functional mechanics of hypothesis testing, analysis and decision making through scientifically sound results published in high impact scientific journals implemented in International Centers like CIMMYT and ICARDA and transfer this capacity to the national and regional programs. Through this project important opportunities for information exchange and technology transfer will be implemented among different disciplines: genbanks, computer scientists, physiologists, pathologists and biotechnologists together with the same objective. Linkages between disciplines will open new opportunities of collaborations and to increase scientific impact in the target region. Capacity development and empowerment: through the project, young scientists involved in marker use, database development, modelling, physiological trait based breeding will be involved in all the processes and will learn how to use them. At least around 18 young scientists will be selected with a strong sense of gender equality for opportunities, empowered and equipped with skills for the above technologies and how to bring them together for the purpose of PGRFA management, dissemination and use. Institutions will be linked and will be encouraged to continue the characterization of germplasm stored in local genbanks in the future to further expand the impact of this database to the scientific community. The project will provide equal opportunities to both women and man for capacity development and empowerment.