AdaMedOr - Adapting Mediterranean Orchards

Climate change is challenging fruit producers throughout the region. For temperate tree crop, agroclimatic conditions during dormancy are a major site factor, because trees must be able to meet their chill requirements in order to product economically viable yields. How to quantify these requirements remains unclear, with most models that have been put forward performing poorly in the Mediterranean region. Reliable estimates of agroclimatic conditions and requirements are crucial, however, for assembling resilient fruit tree portfolios that can sustain the livelihoods of fruit farmers throughout the continually warming 21st century.

Recent conceptual advances in tree dormancy modelling (achieved by partners of the AdaMedOr consortium), which will be elaborated and refined in AdaMedOr, allow credible projections of tree phenology for this region, with species-specific parameters and performance estimates. For the first time, horticultural researchers and advisors will be equipped with tools that are suitable for the regional climate and capable of predicting tree responses to climate change. The toolbox produced within AdaMedOr will allow recommendations of future-proof portfolios of tree species and cultivars, which are currently not possible. This will greatly contribute to the sustainability of farming systems in the context of changing climates. We will provide a framework that overcomes these constraints by combining state-of-the-art methodologies that avoid the slough of assumptions that have riddled past attempts at phenology modelling. The approach will allow for full parametrization based on bloom records, at both the species and the cultivar level. This approach will, for the first time, allow credible characterization of the chilling and heat requirements of tree cultivars. This will enable science-based cultivar selection supporting the phenological adaptation of the region’s orchards. We will facilitate the first set of credible climate impact projections for orchards of the Mediterranean region, which will, in turn, allow the design of diverse, future-proof orchards that can withstand the thermal challenges brought on by climate change. The methodology has strong potential for real-world application well beyond the case of Mediterranean fruit and nut trees, promising new opportunities in other regions and for other species, as well as other disciplines, such as forestry and ecology. Finally, we will produce maps of the current and potential future distributions of temperate fruit tree biodiversity of the Mediterranean region, which can serve as guidance for climate change adaptation planners.

Through our research, we will address crucial knowledge bottlenecks regarding climatic needs of trees and future agroclimatic conditions in orchards. We will determine chill and heat requirements of various tree cultivars of multiple species, which can be assembled into future-proof cultivar portfolios. Our outputs are the tools, models, analyses and projections generated during the project. Intended next users of these outputs are extension agencies, farmer associations, tree nurseries and farmers. As a major project outcome, we are aiming to make this target group consider agroclimatic needs during their work and use reliable information to contribute to the adaptation of Mediterranean orchards. To raise the chance of reaching this outcome, we include next users in our project activities, with the consortium including a major tree nursery and practice-oriented researchers in all target countries. We also include farmers directly in designing tree portfolios, to ensure that the tree cultivars we meet their needs, not just those of the researchers. Involving farmers in a participatory process will hopefully increase their ownership of the results and ensure that project outputs are not only credible and salient, but also considered legitimate in the eyes of the intended beneficiaries. The ultimate impacts that we hope to contribute to are resilient and sustainable rural livelihoods that are able to withstand the impacts of climate change.