TALANOA-WATER - Talanoa Water Dialogue for Transformational Adaptation to Water Scarcity Under Climate Change

Water crises are the greatest global societal risk in terms of potential impact. If we keep using water as we are now, global water demand could exceed supply by 40% by 2030, decreasing GDP growth in water-stressed areas by 6%. This is comparable to the expected yearly average economic slowdown induced by the COVID-19 in some of the worst hit economies during 2020-2021, only in the case of water scarcity, the impact will continue into the future. Avoiding this “misery in slow motion” calls for transformational adaptation, i.e. systemic (much larger scale) and/or paradigm shifts (truly new to a particular location) that integrate adaptation to climate change with the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, driven by technological and management improvements and informed by cutting-edge science.

TALANOA-WATER is structured across three pillars: 1) Talanoa Dialogue; 2) actionable socio-hydrology science; and 3) pilot water laboratories. TALANOA-WATER will actively engage all relevant stakeholders leveraging on an innovative storytelling method, the Talanoa Dialogue, adopted within the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) for consensus-building on the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. The Fijian word ‘Talanoa’ refers to an inclusive, participatory and transparent conversation among participants to share stories, build empathy and trust, and make wise decisions for the collective good – in the case of climate change by restoring the balance between greenhouse gas emissions and removals, while exploring strategies that make carbon neutral NDCs compatible with inclusive growth. TALANOA-WATER will exploit the demonstrated ability of the Talanoa Dialogue in steering collective action to set sustainable water use limits that restore the balance between demand and supply in overallocated basins under climate change, through Basin Determined Contributions (BDCs); and to design and implement collectively agreed transformational adaptation strategies that align individual actions with BDCs while achieving equitable growth. To underpin consensus-building and decision-making in the Talanoa Dialogue, TALANOA-WATER will employ, advance and demonstrate operability of the concepts originated in socio-hydrology science, which includes explicit consideration of ecological processes and human behavioral responses, and their integration through a deeper understanding and representation of the two-way feedbacks between human and water/ecological systems (Sivapalan et al., 2014). We will field a suite of integrated climate, hydro(geo)logic, agronomic and socio-economic models (experimented before by partners of the consortium, see e.g. Essenfelder et al. (2018), Parrado et al. (2020) and Pérez-Blanco et al., (2020)) that is actionable, i.e. created alongside stakeholders and capable of effectively informing and enhancing performance of transformational adaptation strategies. We will thoroughly sample uncertainty through ensemble experiments (multi-scenario, multi-model, perturbed physics), so to identify transformational adaptation strategies that show a satisfactory performance under most conceivable futures and ensure decision-making is robust. Modeling efforts and decision making will build on a sound water accounting framework that validates and applies FAO’s WaPOR approach (FAO, 2020), using remote sensing techniques to produce reliable estimates of consumed water and return flows, and biomass production. The Talanoa Dialogue and socio-hydrology concepts will be empirically applied in six pilot water laboratories across the Mediterranean: the lower Nile River Basin (RB) in Egypt, the Po RB in Italy, the Hérault Department in France, the Upper Litani Catchment in Lebanon, the Cega Catchment in Spain and the Jeffara Catchment in Tunisia. Each pilot water laboratory will engage all partners in the TALANOA-WATER Consortium based on their relevant expertise to exploit synergistic research potential; as well as all relevant stakeholders in the laboratory including public authorities (river basin authorities, ministries, municipalities), users’ associations (agricultural, hydropower, tourism), civil society organizations (e.g. NGOs) and industry (e.g. insurance).

Water is notoriously known as both an economic and social good; essential for life, economic development, social cohesion, and the environment. The multitude of the at least to some extent incompatible uses of water and their impacts on natural water bodies makes policy choices both value-laden and intractable. Uncertainty, information asymmetries, pre-existing water permits or entitlements adhering to different legal doctrines, and hostile reception of water policy reform may antagonize introduction of transformational adaptation strategies, reinforcing path dependent trajectories characterized by lock-in of stakeholders’ technological and management responses (e.g. dam construction) to water scarcity under climate change. TALANOA-WATER fields a groundbreaking ecosystem of innovation that combines an inclusive and transparent stakeholder engagement method, the Talanoa Dialogue, with an actionable modeling framework inspired in interdisciplinary socio-hydrology science, to share views, develop collective knowledge, build trust, achieve consensus and unblock transformational responses to water scarcity under climate change in six large-scale pilot water laboratories in the Mediterranean basin. In TALANOA-WATER ecosystem of innovation, stakeholders are an integral part of the research, contributing alongside scientists through the co-design, co-development, co-evaluation, co-identification and co-implementation phases to generate a personalized experience to a level that is best suited for their tasks (e.g. decision-making). This co-opting users’ competence denotes efforts through which stakeholders: 1) are turned into co-creators and not only ‘customers’ of research outputs; 2) assume roles in shaping expectation and acceptance of scenarios and strategies; and 3) help to extract value of the modeling framework and ecosystem of innovation, and actively contribute to the deployment of agreed transformational adaptation strategies. Fluent science-policy interaction and collaboration within the ecosystem of innovation thus becomes the hub for value creation and value extraction through the design, realization and demonstration of complementary and mutually reinforcing technologies and management options in comprehensive transformational adaptation strategies. Although some of the technologies and management options that will be explored are already available in the market, their uptake is limited (e.g. studies at plot scale, as in forested infiltration areas for aquifer recharge in Italy). TALANOA-WATER will drive their large-scale adoption and create new avenues for innovation potential through transformational strategies with synergistic components whose total value is larger than the sum of parts. For example, we will combine the development of non-conventional treated wastewater and saline water with innovative water charging systems that induce substitution of overexploited surface and groundwater conventional resources; or combine commercial drought insurance with nature-based solutions for aquifer recharge, so to complement the insurance value of groundwater with formal insurance and thus reduce pressures on overallocated aquifers, while enhancing aquifer recharge through nature-based solutions. We will build on recent advancements in information and communication technologies such as remote sensing, smart gauge sensors, cloud computing and data analytics to support more accurate water accounting and data collection that improves system knowledge. Socio-hydrology science and simulations will exploit increased real-time digital data accuracy enabled by remote sensing and other information and communication technologies, and translate raw water data into relevant and actionable knowledge to better inform private and public choices. Deployment of transformational adaptation strategies such as smart (e.g. mobile-based) irrigation services across the pilot water laboratories will demonstrate the added value of remote sensing, sensors and other information and communication technologies, combined with the ecosystem of innovation and transformational adaptation strategies, in turning accurate and reliable real-time digital data in increased real-time accuracy of knowledge and improved IWRM.