FISHERIES AND AQUACULURE FUTURES IN AFRICA

Fish, as a source of "rich food for poor people", can play an important role in improving Africa's food security and nutritional status. Despite the high dependence on fish as a source of animal protein, Africa has the lowest per capita fish consumption compared to other developing regions. At the same time, however, growth in fish consumption has been outstripping production. Aquaculture development in Africa has lagged far behind that seen in Asia. While developing countries as a whole are net fish exporters, the Africa region is a net fish importer. This paper examines past, present, and future trends of fish in Africa to explore policy implications and potential investment interventions to address the continent's challenges in ensuring sustained fish growth to meet the growing regional demand.

Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) with an updated fish model developed in collaboration with WorldFish, the business-as-usual scenario of fish production, consumption, nutrient intake, and net trade in Africa region was projected out to 2050.

Growth in aquaculture production for Africa is projected to be low and likely to maintain a 2% share of the global fish output. Tilapia will continue to be the major species produced from aquaculture in the region. Aquaculture is expected to supply about a quarter of the fish consumed in Africa by 2030 while capture fisheries will continue dominance as a source of fish supply until 2050 (Figure 1). Although per capita fish consumption remains low, more imported fish is projected to meet demand from the growing population. Tremendous potential exists for aquaculture expansion in Africa, but will require important investments and will face considerable challenges.